The United States has withdrawn its remaining forces from military bases in Iraq, bringing an end to a 23-year military presence that began with the 2003 invasion to remove Saddam Hussein.
The departure marks a significant shift in Iraq’s security landscape, but it has also raised concerns about whether the country’s forces can manage the risks without the support previously provided by the US-led coalition.
The withdrawal, completed on September 30, 2026, follows an agreement reached between Washington and Baghdad in 2024. While the departure has been welcomed by many Iraqis, security analysts and officials have warned that the reduced Western military presence could strengthen Iran-backed armed groups and create opportunities for Islamic State, also known as ISIS, to rebuild its networks.
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The concerns come as Iraq continues to deal with the consequences of years of conflict, political instability and the presence of armed groups with influence inside the country.
US Withdrawal Ends a Military Presence That Began in 2003
American forces first entered Iraq in 2003 as part of the US-laed invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. The invasion was followed by an occupation, the installation of a Shi’ite-led government and years of counterinsurgency operations.
US forces initially fought Saddam loyalists and later confronted al-Qaeda-linked militants. American troops left Iraq at the end of 2011, but returned less than three years later to support Iraqi forces in their fight against Islamic State.
Between 2014 and 2017, Iraqi forces, supported by the US-led coalition, fought a major campaign that ended ISIS’s control over large parts of the country. Although the group lost its territorial stronghold, security officials say it has retained sleeper cells capable of carrying out attacks.
The latest withdrawal follows a 2024 agreement between Iraq and the United States to wind down the coalition’s military mission in Iraq and move towards a different security relationship. The agreement was reached during Joe Biden’s presidency and implemented by Donald Trump’s administration.
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Concerns Over a Possible Security Vacuum
The departure has prompted questions about whether Iraq’s security institutions are sufficiently prepared to operate without the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support previously provided by American forces.
US troops had helped Iraqi security forces track Islamic State movements through intelligence-sharing and aerial surveillance. Some Iraqi officials and analysts fear that losing this support could make it harder to identify and disrupt militant activity.
Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces, said the experience of the previous two decades showed how dangerous security gaps could become.
His warning reflects concerns that a reduced international military presence could create openings for armed groups, particularly if Iraqi institutions struggle to coordinate security operations across the country.
The withdrawal does not mean that ISIS has regained control of territory on the scale it held at its peak. However, the group’s remaining sleeper-cell network continues to be a concern for Iraqi security officials.
Iran-Backed Militias Could Gain More Influence
Iran and its regional allies have described the US withdrawal as a victory. Tehran has long sought the removal of American forces from the Middle East and maintains influence in Iraq through allied armed groups.
Analysts have warned that the absence of Western troops could give some Iran-backed militias greater room to expand their influence within Iraq’s political and security institutions.
Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis said the concern was not limited to direct Iranian intervention. He warned that Iran-aligned groups could feel more confident about expanding their role in state affairs and strengthening their position within key institutions.
The issue presents a challenge for the Iraqi government, which must balance domestic demands for greater sovereignty with the need to maintain security and control over armed groups.
Iran’s influence in Iraq is also part of a broader regional contest involving the United States and other Middle Eastern powers. The US withdrawal therefore has implications beyond the future of the military bases themselves.
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Why ISIS Remains a Concern Despite Its Territorial Defeat
At its peak, Islamic State controlled roughly one-third of Iraq and carried out mass killings, including executions that were recorded and circulated by the group.
Iraqi and coalition forces eventually removed ISIS from its territorial strongholds, but the defeat of its self-declared caliphate did not eliminate the organisation’s presence.
Security officials say militants continue to operate through sleeper cells. Their ability to regroup could depend on local security conditions, intelligence capabilities and the effectiveness of Iraqi forces in preventing attacks.
Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led a brigade during the war against Islamic State, said a key question was whether Iraq’s security institutions had prepared a workable plan for the period after the coalition’s departure.
He also raised concerns about the possibility of ISIS obtaining armed drones or improvised explosive drones. According to al-Jubouri, Iraq’s air-defence capabilities may not be sufficient to counter such threats effectively.
These warnings underline the importance of maintaining surveillance, intelligence-sharing and rapid-response capabilities as Iraq assumes greater responsibility for counterterrorism operations.
Iraq’s Security Forces Face a New Test
The withdrawal places greater responsibility on Iraq’s national security institutions, including federal forces and security units in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.
The US and Iraqi governments have said that Iraqi forces will take the lead in the fight against terrorism. The transition is part of a wider move away from the coalition’s military mission towards bilateral security cooperation. <Cite refs={[“turn532395search7″,”turn532395search10”]} />
However, the ability of Iraqi forces to maintain pressure on ISIS while managing the influence of powerful armed groups remains a central question.
The challenge is not only military. Iraq must also ensure that security institutions remain coordinated and that armed groups do not operate independently of state authority.
The withdrawal is broadly popular among Iraqis, according to the source report, but that support exists alongside concerns about the country’s ability to protect itself. The report also notes that around 4,500 American service members died during more than two decades of war in Iraq.
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What Happens After the US Departure?
The end of the US military presence in Iraq marks a new phase in the relationship between Baghdad and Washington. It also shifts more of the responsibility for counterterrorism and internal security onto Iraqi institutions.
The immediate concerns include whether Iraqi forces can maintain access to reliable intelligence, prevent ISIS sleeper cells from regrouping and limit the influence of armed groups aligned with Iran.
The withdrawal itself does not establish that a security vacuum will emerge or that ISIS will regain territory. Those outcomes remain risks raised by analysts and officials, rather than confirmed developments.
For Iraq, the coming period will test whether its security institutions can sustain counterterrorism operations and maintain state authority without the military support that has shaped the country’s security arrangements for years.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. When did US forces complete their withdrawal from Iraq?
US forces withdrew from their remaining bases in Iraq on September 30, 2026, according to the report.
2. Why did the US withdraw from Iraq?
The withdrawal followed a 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad to end the US-led coalition’s military mission in Iraq and transition towards a different security partnership.
3. Why are there concerns about ISIS after the withdrawal?
Iraqi security officials and analysts are concerned that ISIS sleeper cells could exploit gaps in intelligence, surveillance or security coordination after the departure of coalition forces.
4. Could Iran-backed militias gain influence in Iraq?
Analysts quoted in the report warn that some Iran-backed groups could feel more empowered without a Western military presence. They may seek a greater role in state institutions and policymaking.
5. Has ISIS regained control of parts of Iraq?
The source report does not say that ISIS has regained territorial control. It says the group retains a sleeper-cell network despite losing its self-declared caliphate.
6. Who will lead counterterrorism operations in Iraq now?
Iraqi security forces are expected to take the lead in counterterrorism operations following the end of the coalition’s military mission.
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